Monday, June 19, 2006
Mainstream Games Get Even Narrower
I don't think this article will be freely available on the NYTimes website for more than a few days, but here it goes:
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/06/19/technology/19game.html?_r=2&pagewanted=1&oref=slogin
Some highlights:
* Analysts are estimating a 30 to 50 percent increase in the cost of making "top-tier" games for the new consoles.
* Analysts are really concerned about the games industry - not that it's going to die or anything, but that the days of explosive growth seem to be over.
* Bobby Kotick, CEO of Activision, has some even more interesting comments. One was that the industry is going to focus more narrowly on games with higher hit potential. Read: Fewer games, mostly in proven genres.
* Mr. Kotick is further quoted as follows: "The idea of full downloadable games is so far in the future that it's almost incomprehensible as an opportunity," Mr. Kotick said. But he added that there were more immediately plausible revenue opportunities from selling downloads of supplemental game levels or "characters, new weapons, new missions, or auctioning off places" in a virtual world.
Yeah. Nevermind that Half Life 2 sold (from what people can tell) about as many copies via STEAM as they did in Retail. Nevermind that Epic is planning an even better delivery system for PREY that will allow people to play while the game is still downloading. Nevermind the biggest story of the XBox 360 is the LiveArcade stuff. Nevermind that the indies are going full-bore on the fully downloadable game thing. True, you aren't gonna find many indie games with 3 gig download size, unlike top-tier AAA games.
So there are four possibilities here:
1. Mr. Kotick's myopia about downloadable games is respresentative of the entire mainstream games industry, and they are all clinging desperately to the status quo...
2. Mr. Kotick's myopia is particular to just himself and his vision of Activision's future
3. Mr. Kotick's comments were smokescreen to reassure investors and distribution partners, and to conceal Activision's plans for taking advantage of downloadable games.
4. Mr. Kotick really does know something we don't know.
If it's #1, then the games industry really is going to be in trouble as they churn out fewer, even more derivative products, sticking even closer to the tried and true.
No matter how you slice it, the efforts of the mainstream industry to further narrow its scope means the door will left even more wide open for the indies.
Labels: Indie Evangelism, Mainstream Games
- posted by The Rampant Coyote @ 10:22 PM (Permalink)
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5. Mr. Potick, like all publishers, are scared shitless about how the downloadable model allows developers to essentially bypass the publishers, relegating the publisher to the role of industry dinosaur.
Whether he's scared of the power of downloadable games or ignorant of it, his response is going to be the same. The effect is the same either way too, possibly causing a slight delay in adoption of the technology by some companies.
The fact is that downloadable content has been working quite well even in its infant state, so long as you choose your projects carefully.
I agree that the role of game publishers is going to change. I doubt they'll vanish outright, but only the flexible and responsive are likely to survive. And the survivors will have to do more than ship a couple of AAA mega-games per year.
The fact is that downloadable content has been working quite well even in its infant state, so long as you choose your projects carefully.
I agree that the role of game publishers is going to change. I doubt they'll vanish outright, but only the flexible and responsive are likely to survive. And the survivors will have to do more than ship a couple of AAA mega-games per year.
It may be that he's simply trying to throw around enough F.U.D. to turn it into a self-fulfilling prophecy.
As I see it, the major downloadable portals are already starting to adopt policies resembling that of the publishers in the late 80's... they are already PLANNING on history repeating itself with downloadable games in the next decade as it did for the "traditional" game industry two decades ago. They are just waiting for the torch to be passed by their kicking-and-screaming predecessors.
As I see it, the major downloadable portals are already starting to adopt policies resembling that of the publishers in the late 80's... they are already PLANNING on history repeating itself with downloadable games in the next decade as it did for the "traditional" game industry two decades ago. They are just waiting for the torch to be passed by their kicking-and-screaming predecessors.
What is that guy thinking?
If that is Activision's stance they cant expect to survive long. I really dont see what big buisness's problem is with accepting technological advancement (see MPAA, RIAA etc)...
Publishers should embrace the technology and create download models that include them in the chain if they want to survive. Valve is obviously a great success, but there is nothing to stop other major publishers following suit with their own services...
If that is Activision's stance they cant expect to survive long. I really dont see what big buisness's problem is with accepting technological advancement (see MPAA, RIAA etc)...
Publishers should embrace the technology and create download models that include them in the chain if they want to survive. Valve is obviously a great success, but there is nothing to stop other major publishers following suit with their own services...
You are touching my soapbox subject, Tom.
The thing is, the big publishers (RIAA, MPAA, etc) are products of technology in transition. The technology allowed them to bring economy of scale to bear to the point where they were not just the providers of the means to get product to market and to the consumers, but they had a virtual monopoly and could be the gatekeepers as well.
Well, that was a temporary situation, and now we're in the 21st century, and that same technological advancement that made them is now threatening to destroy them - at least in their current incarnation.
And that's the STUPID thing that really pisses me off. We still NEED middleman companies like these publishers. Well, maybe "need" is too strong of a word. But they can still provide us with a valuable service - especially when it comes to things like marketing. There's a role for them in the next century (and beyond...) But they have to step down from their little monopoly and role as gatekeepers, and accept that with their diminished role, they are going to have to accept a diminished portion of the profit.
If they don't, there's a bunch of little guys who will. In fact, they are already doing just that.
I'd like to think Activision is smarter than that. But maybe they aren't.
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The thing is, the big publishers (RIAA, MPAA, etc) are products of technology in transition. The technology allowed them to bring economy of scale to bear to the point where they were not just the providers of the means to get product to market and to the consumers, but they had a virtual monopoly and could be the gatekeepers as well.
Well, that was a temporary situation, and now we're in the 21st century, and that same technological advancement that made them is now threatening to destroy them - at least in their current incarnation.
And that's the STUPID thing that really pisses me off. We still NEED middleman companies like these publishers. Well, maybe "need" is too strong of a word. But they can still provide us with a valuable service - especially when it comes to things like marketing. There's a role for them in the next century (and beyond...) But they have to step down from their little monopoly and role as gatekeepers, and accept that with their diminished role, they are going to have to accept a diminished portion of the profit.
If they don't, there's a bunch of little guys who will. In fact, they are already doing just that.
I'd like to think Activision is smarter than that. But maybe they aren't.
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